Rethinking ETA. From reactive to proactive voyage planning 

Annemarie (‘Rie’) Bjerregaard Dahl, Climate & Process Development / Senior Ops. Manager at Lauritzen Bulkers A/S, is driven by a desire to challenge conventional wisdom. 

For years, operators have worked on the assumption that ETA is beyond their control.  Too many variables, too much uncertainty.  

Rie wasn’t convinced. “That’s the dogma we wanted to challenge,” she told us. “We knew there had to be a better way.” 

Together with Weathernews and Marcura, and with the support of senior leadership within Lauritzen, Rie helped form a partnership to change that.  

Weathernews brought advanced weather routing and vessel performance analytics; Marcura brought the port-side intelligence, using verified timestamps and enriched data from PortLog to support accurate laytime calculation and better port-call planning. 

Lauritzen took the lead on testing, manually at first, proving, voyage by voyage, that better planning translates directly to better P&L. 

Now live in BETA as of June 14, operators across Lauritzen are now beginning to explore the PortLog OTA (Optimal Time of Arrival) solution before a broader rollout planned after the summer.  

We sat down with Rie at Marcura’s recent Leading with Confidence event in Copenhagen to hear how the project came together, and what it means for the future of voyage planning.  

Read her story below 

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Rie, you’ve described yourself—only half-jokingly—as a propeller head. What does that actually look like in your role, and what made you want to rethink how laytime and arrival planning were being done?  

I guess it means I like to get into the details. I like to understand how things really work and then ask why they’re still being done that way. And Lauritzen gives me the space to ask those kinds of questions. 

There was a time when operators worked closely with the master to make smart, real-time decisions. That kind of ownership has been lost. I wanted to take it back. 

What frustrated me was that laytime was being treated like an afterthought. Calculated too late to change anything. But for us, each voyage is its own P&L. We need to extract value wherever it hides, at sea, in port, in intake, in fuel.  

And of course, the more you optimise operations, the more capacity operators have to optimise the voyage P&L.  

You’ve been applying that thinking manually for some time now. What does that look like in practice? 

This is just how we operate. We’ve been running tests for some time now, voyage by voyage. That means looking at each one holistically and asking: where is the money on this voyage? 

One standout was from Ningbo to Santos. I gave Weathernews a specific OTA target, and their probability model hit it to within the hour on a 30-day voyage. That kind of precision is unheard of in dry bulk. 

 We’ve also seen savings of $10,000, $20,000 and even $80,000 by managing arrival better. That’s not theory That’s real-world fuel, port time, and avoided delay. 

What was the ‘Aha’ moment when you realised you had something here that could truly scale?  

When I saw we had the right ingredients. Weathernews had the sea leg. Marcura had the port side. But no one was stitching them together.  

I encouraged Weathernews to move from deterministic forecasts to probabilistic ones. Marcura’s laytime engine could translate CP terms into something usable. That was the opportunity. 

Put them together and you don’t just get a better ETA. You get a decision-making tool. One that helps us manage arrival, and ultimately improve voyage P&L. 

The impact on profitability is impressive enough on its own, but I know sustainability is something that’s incredibly important to you and to Lauritzen. Are there benefits here too? 

Absolutely. If you swap dollars for CO2, it’s the same story. Better voyage planning translates into a steady ME (Main Engine) load, saving additional fuel. We avoid running to stand still.  

You don’t need a regulation to do it. You just need a better plan. And a system you can trust. 

Looking at the partnership you formed with Weathernews and Marcura, why do you think this worked so well?  

Because it was a true triangle partnership. We all had deep domain knowledge and a shared respect for data. We could speak the same language. 

But it also needed someone willing to step forward. This kind of innovation doesn’t work without a real customer who’s prepared to lead. If vendors work in isolation, it stays theoretical. 

Lauritzen brought the use case, the curiosity, and the operational muscle to test it for real. 

And most importantly, there was trust. No politics. Just people who cared about making it work. 

You mentioned this project has been about challenging assumptions. Did you experience pushback and how did you overcome it?  

We had to challenge dogma. People had convinced themselves you couldn’t control ETA. That it was entirely down to weather, the vessel, chance. When I said otherwise, it's only natural that that others may want to test that point of view.  

But we led by example. We showed results. We sat down with operators and asked, “Where’s the money in this voyage?”  

And they started to see it. They realised they weren’t just here to enter numbers in boxes; they were actively shaping outcomes. 

For older operators, this felt like taking back control. For younger ones, it was a complete disruption. A new way of thinking. But either way, it unlocked something. 

You’re nearly at full rollout. What more can you tell us about next steps?  

I’m happy to share that we recently launched the BETA version of the PortLog OTA system.  

A wider rollout is planned for after the summer, but we already have operators using it and exploring its potential. 

The interface is built to help operators focus on the port calls where there’s real potential to optimise. If PortLog spots an opportunity to save time or cost, it flags it clearly in orange on the dashboard. 

What excites you most about what comes next?  

This is a disruption, but not just of technology. It’s a disruption of thinking. 

We’re moving away from this idea that you make a plan, cross your fingers, and fix the fallout later. That logic doesn’t hold anymore. We know more now. We can do better. 

And we’re not doing this just for us. We’ve all benefited from this industry. Now it’s time to give something back, and collaboration with our peers is the way forward.  

To quote John Lennon; “Nothing you can see that isn’t shown.”  

Once you’ve seen something, you can’t unsee it.  

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